Dramatic fall in murders in Scotland over 20 years shows how to tackle drug-deaths

The techniques used to reduce the prevalence of violence could also be deployed against Scotland’s drug-deaths crisis.

This is the topic of my column, published in today's Scotsman (3rd March 2026).

First, a major success that may point a way forward. The number of murders in Scotland has fallen dramatically over the past 20 years, from 137 in 2005 to 47 last year.

The figures are impressive but behind the statistics lies a huge reduction in the suffering of families and friends, stricken when someone close is killed. A murder in a family or small community can ripple down the generations, leaving unimaginable marks of grief and damage.

Be in no doubt about the scale of this success and the credit due to our Violence Reduction Unit (VRU) in driving this change. Now a national organisation, it was first developed over 20 years ago in the old Strathclyde Police area, with the idea of a holistic public health approach to violence first hatched by my old colleague John Carnochan and my fellow Scotsman columnist, Karyn McCluskey.

John, a seasoned detective, was in the front line during the dark days of the 90s when Strathclyde alone had 100 murders a year. Looking at the background of the culprits, he saw that the crimes themselves did not stand alone, but were the culmination of a long journey, starting with violence in the home and childhood trauma.

Instead of just talking about it, John and Karyn took action, convincing Strathclyde Chief Constable Sir Willie Rae that a public health approach was the only way to reduce violence. To his credit, Sir Willie threw his full weight behind the idea. The rest is history, resulting in a remarkable success that’s been copied across the world.

This is not to say that violence has been eradicated or that we can be complacent, far from it. As the present VRU head makes clear, “violence is finding new shadows to hide in, often in domestic settings”.

So why the success? The ethos of the VRU is based on the belief that violence is a preventable disease, not an inevitable part of life. With coordinated and evidence-based early interventions, real reductions can be achieved. And so it has proved.

Of course there is a read-across to another of our great social problems: addiction and drugs. Could the same formula, so successful in reducing violence, not be adapted to tackle our appalling drug-death problem?

The root causes are much the same, and a coordinated approach is also vital to success. Should we not accept, once and for all, that our stop-go drug policies have failed?

As we face a new wave of nitazenes, high-potency synthetic opioids, we need to think anew, build on our success, and invest in a real long-term strategy. I venture to suggest that the huge success of our violence reduction strategy points the way ahead.

On a not so positive note, it was disappointing to read about the police failure to spot gunshot wounds to the body of murder victim Brian Low, shot by ex-gamekeeper David Campbell near Aberfeldy back in 2024.

Thankfully Police Scotland recovered the situation and Campbell was convicted last week.

It is a timely reminder that some aspects of criminal investigation are immutable, despite all sophistication. The first officer at the scene of a serious crime can make or break the case. It was ever thus.