Tl1e big winner from gang wars will be Police Scotland

The massive falling out between two West of Scotland crime families is creating an information bonanza for criminal intelligence units.

This is my latest column, published in today's Scotsman (24th June 2025).

W hen thieves fallout, good men prosper. It's an old proverb but, like many, there's a strong thread of truth to it, and recently we have been witnessing a prime example played out on the streets of Scotland and further afield. The monumental falling out between two West of Scotland crime families has led to months of reciprocal stabbings. shootings and arson attacks.

It's alarming to think of a shooting war on our streets but when the dust eventually settles the gangs involved will find that neither has won and both have been seriously damaged or destroyed.

Such falling out among thieves is not uncommon and usually only benefits other criminals, the tabloid press (which loves a good gangster story) and Police Scotland's criminal intelligence units, which reap the richest of harvests. Right now analysts at the Gartcosh Crime Can1pus will be shaking their heads in disbelief at the ongoing bonanza of information about these usually secretive groups. Ideally, they operate quietly, below the radar, with apparently legitimate front businesses. However, the two main characteristics of most gang leaders are a raging ego and extreme paranoia. Though many of these individuals appreciate the advantages of a low profile, they find it hard not to flaunt their power and success.

Like the preening of an 'alpha' pack leader, this is a way of declaring their ascendancy. Unfortunately it also draws attention to their unexplained wealth and inevitably leads to closer examination by the authorities. Gang leaders also spend their lives looking over their shoulders, searching for conspiracies. Since they have usually reached the top by treachery, they expect to find it everywhere and they inevitably do.

But when a gang war breaks out, all caution and good business sense is lost. Long-running. bloody arguments can break out over tile most trivial of incidents. A perceived slight can lead to conflict but it's usually about territory. Most criminal gangs nowadays deal in contraband. Gone are the artful pickpockets, the armed robbers and the safe-breakers. lf it's not online scams then it's contraband, drugs, money, guns, or people, and smuggling routes and markets. A disruption of either is disastrous. To make the system work, low-order minions act as facilitators.

However, when fighting breaks out. getting the right personnel can be difficult. Drug couriers, often users themselves, don't always make good foot soldiers. They tend to get caught and, when they do, and face serious charges, old allegiances evaporate as they desperately try to save their skins.

For criminal intelligence analysts, it's the jackpot. Gang members, safe houses, and even the hiding place of firearms are gradually revealed. While gangs battle it out, they are slowly being picked apart by well-structured police investigations supported by computer-assisted admin systems and the latest in surveillance technology.

Two things are certain. When the gangs have fought themselves to a standstill, most members will be in jail, exile or worse. The only other thing that's sure is that as one gang self-destructs, another awaits to take their trade. The iron laws of supply and demand will not be denied.